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Contact Details Department of Biology (Area 18) University of York PO Box 373 York YO10 5YW Tel: +44 (0)1904 328646 E-mail: cdt2@york.ac.uk Office: B/J2

Career Outline

1981	BA	Cambridge University
1984	MSc	University College of North Wales, Bangor
1988	PhD	University of Texas at Austin, USA
1988-1989	Post-doc	DSIR/University of Canterbury, New Zealand
1990-1992	Post-doc	CPB, Imperial College at Silwood Park
1992-1995	Lecturer	School of Biological Sciences, University of Birmingham
1995-1999	Research Fellow	School of Biology, University of Leeds
1999-2004	Professor	School of Biology, University of Leeds
2004-	Professor	Department of Biology, University of York

Research Interests

Research in the group focuses on the ecological and evolutionary impacts of human activities on biological systems. We are particularly interested in the following topics. (A) The recent and potential future impact of climate and land use changes on the distributions of species, and on population- and species-level extinctions. This involves a combination of field work and modelling. (B) Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation on the extinction and survival of species in human-modified landscapes, dealing with the landscape-scale sustainability of populations and communities. (C) Will species be able to shift their distributions in response to climate change, given that they must cross heavily modified and fragmented landscapes to do so? (D) How do evolutionary (gene flow and selection) processes determine the dynamics and locations of species’ range boundaries.

Discoveries:
We have documented northwards shifts in a wide range of groups of animals over recent decades, during a period of climate warming. We estimated that 15-37% of species may be committed to eventual extinction as a result of climate warming that is likely to have taken place (mid-range estimates) by 2050, and we have contributed to the development of climate-change adaptation policies for biodiversity. We have also collaborated in the development of conservation planning tools, resulting in the identification of priority areas in Britain and Madagascar.

Some Recent Publications

Thomas C D et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148

Hickling R et al. (2006) The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Global Change Biology 12: 450-455

Hoegh-Guldberg O, Hughes L, McIntyre SL, Lindenmayer DB, Parmesan C, Possingham HP and Thomas CD (2008) Assisted colonization and rapid climate change. 321: Science 321: 345-346

Kremen C, Cameron A, Moilanen A, Phillips S, Thomas CD et al (2008) Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools Science 320: 222-226

Current Research Projects

• ALARM: Assessing biodiversity risk from climate change and other drivers of change
  Funding body: EU
• UKPopNet: Modelling distribution changes in British animals and plants
  Funding body: NERC & English Nature
• Linking population and genetic changes during ranges shifts induced by climate change
  Funding body: NERC/Natural England, UKPopNet
• The relative importance of microclimate and land use to biodiversity
  Funding body: NERC/Natural England, UKPopNet
• The impact of climate change on habitat use: implications for predicting species' range changes
  Funding body: NERC/EHFI
• Linking biodiversity and ecosystem services: processes, priorities and prospects
  Funding body: NERC/Natural England, UKPopNet
• Adaptation for future climate warming: the role of habitat creation in promoting species' range shifts
  Funding body: NERC
• The role of ecological and evolutionary processes in the range expansion of grasshoppers and crickets
  Funding body: CEH/NERC
• Climate change and the ecology of the British uplands: the responses of northern insects, and the implications for threatened bird species
  Funding body: NERC/RSPB

Professional Activities

• Editorial review boards: Conservation Letters, Diversity & Distributions, Ecological Entomology, Insect Conservation & Diversity
• We actively engage with the press to disseminate research findings: at least 2000 press items worldwide have reported the findings of our research on climate change, extinction and declining species

PhD Research Projects Available for 2010

The impact of climate change on European butterfly biodiversity, past and future (for 2010-11)
This project will investigate the thermal ranges of European butterfly species and evaluate how this might have allowed them to have survived ice age climates. It will then consider how these thermal ranges, in combination with existing geographic distributions, might make different species (and genera) more or less susceptible to decline from future climate warming. This project will use distribution data for European butterflies to project their expected distributions under previous glacial and previous interglacial climatic conditions, and then use the same statistical models to project future distributions and extinction risk. The student will test a series of hypotheses to evaluate whether certain types of species are at greatest risk of extinction in future, and to identify whether future extinctions are only likely to take place once conditions become hotter than those experienced in previous interglacials. The project will also identify areas of Europe of greatest importance to the future survival of European butterflies, and hence contribute to continental-scale conservation planning.

The potential for long-distance colonisation to enable species to respond to climate change (for 2010-11)
The ability of species to shift their ranges over long distances, in response to climate change, is likely to depend on the movement of small numbers of individuals across ecological barriers. This project will analyse long distance movement data, potentially concentrating on birds, butterflies and/or plants. The student will evaluate which traits of species are associated with rare, long-distance movement and colonisation. This information is essential if we are to develop conservation approaches (e.g., the need for connected landscapes) that will help species survive future climate change. The project will also help to identify appropriate strategies to facilitate the establishment of species outside their current geographic distributions.

Lab Members

Status	Name	Project
PhD Student	Corrado Topi	Biodiversity indicators of global climate change
PhD Student	Matthew Carroll	Climate change and the ecology of the British uplands: the responses of northern insects, and the implications for threatened bird species
PhD Student	I-Ching Chen	Impacts of climate change on tropical biodiversity
PhD Student	Joe Chipperfield	Linking population and genetic changes during ranges shifts induced by climate change
PhD Student	Andrew Suggitt	Modelling thermal components of habitat availability at species’ range boundaries
PhD Student	Rachel Pateman	Quantifying relationships between habitat use and temperature at butterfly range boundaries
PhD Student	Pippa Gillingham	The relative importance of microclimate and land use to biodiversity
PhD Student	Björn Beckmann	The role of ecological and evolutionary processes in the range expansion of grasshoppers and crickets
Post doctoral fellow	Dr Barbara Anderson	Linking biodiversity and ecosystem services: processes, priorities and prospects
Post doctoral fellow	Dr Tom Oliver (based at Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)	The impact of climate change on habitat use: implications for predicting species' range changes.
Visiting Researcher	Dr Ralf Ohlemueller	Assessing biodiversity risk from climate change and other drivers of change
Visiting Researcher	Dr Jenny Hodgson	Metapopulation dynamics of the silver-studded blue butterfly in stable and dynamic habitats
Visiting Researcher	Dr Aldina Franco	Priority areas for the conservation of British biodiversity